[SMM Analysis] Global Steel Market Weekly Review Issue 10

[SMM Analysis] Global Steel Market Weekly Review Issue 10

Last week, China's export offers continued to decline amid fading expectations for macro policy support, falling costs of raw materials like coking coal, and short-term uncertainties brought by the new export license policy. By the end of last week, China's HRC export offers were at $457-462/mt; steel billet export offers were at $434-442/mt. Domestic buying interest tapered off, as some rushed to expedite shipments due to concerns over export licenses, while most adopted a wait-and-see stance. Regular export traders mostly showed mediocre performance, still quoting normally, but remained doubtful about the implementation of subsequent policies. Therefore, short-term order-taking is expected to have pullback room, but long-term impacts still depend on policy implementation.

Overseas markets, Southeast Asia: This week, the Southeast Asian market mainly operated in the doldrums. Steel billet market purchasing activity was relatively mediocre, downstream stocking was basically completed, and with the approaching holidays, the overall market tended to be quiet. Turning to the sheets & plates sector, current Indonesian HRC prices continued to fall, down $5-7/mt WoW. Purchase willingness in the Vietnamese market was also relatively sluggish, with thin market trading.

Middle East market: This week, the long steel market in the Middle East remained divergent. Local construction steel prices in the UAE mostly held stable, and due to certified steel mills from Saudi Arabia recently exporting rebar to the UAE, subsequent price increases faced pressure. Local demand in Saudi Arabia remained relatively active, with recovering demand pushing prices higher, while tightening steel scrap supply further drove the price rebound. Looking at the sheets & plates sector, the HRC market was mostly under pressure. Although Asian sellers continued to lower offers, due to low end-user purchase willingness in the Middle East, prices are expected to have further downside room in the short term.

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